Prediction Markets Rating Win With CFTC Rewriting Buying and selling Guidelines

• The CFTC is planning to rewrite the regulatory guidelines for prediction markets
• Prediction markets, or occasion contracts, represent by-product buying and selling that the CFTC regulates
• The CFTC regulatory rewrite is a significant win for prediction markets providing sports activities and political contracts

Prediction markets have secured a significant victory of their quest to proceed providing contracts involving sports activities, as state attorneys common and gaming regulators file lawsuits and concern cease-and-desist orders in opposition to the buying and selling platforms.

Michael Selig seems throughout a Senate Agriculture, Diet, and Forestry Committee listening to on Capitol Hill on Nov. 19, 2025, in Washington, DC. Selig was sworn in as chair of the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee, which regulates prediction markets, in December 2025. (Picture: Andrew Harnik/Getty)

Prediction markets run by-product buying and selling regulated by the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee (CFTC). Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket have boomed in reputation since they started facilitating buying and selling on the end result of the 2024 presidential election, and final 12 months, embarking into sports activities trades.

State lawmakers, in addition to tribal nations, say solely they’ve the authorized authority to find out sports activities betting rules of their jurisdictions. They argue that prediction markets buying and selling sports activities occasions represent sports activities playing.

Within the wake of the authorized mess, new CFTC Chair Michael Selig, who was appointed by President Donald Trump final October, says the principles on derivatives will probably be rewritten to accommodate the rising prediction markets area.

CFTC to Help Prediction Market Innovation 

Throughout a dialog with Securities and Alternate Fee (SEC) Chair Paul Atkins concerning finance innovation, Selig mentioned he “can be remiss” if he didn’t tackle prediction markets, or occasion contracts because the CFTC calls them.

“These markets should not new. They’ve operated throughout the CFTC’s regulatory perimeter for greater than twenty years. However, regardless of their historical past, many view them as novel or unsettled. That uncertainty has not served our markets nicely, nor has it served the general public curiosity,” Selig said.

It’s time for clear guidelines and a transparent understanding that the CFTC helps lawful innovation in these markets. I’ve directed CFTC workers to withdraw the 2024 occasion contracts rule proposal that might prohibit political and sports-related occasion contracts and the 2025 workers advisory, which cautioned registrants about providing entry to sports-related occasion contracts on account of ongoing litigation. Whereas the advisory was issued on the workers degree with the intent of bringing consciousness to the litigation, it has as a substitute contributed to uncertainty in our markets,” Selig defined.

Selig added that he’s directed CFTC workers to draft up to date occasion contracts rulemaking, which is predicted to solidify a federal authorized footing for prediction markets to supply contracts on occasions involving sports activities and politics.

Trump Profit?

Trump’s enterprise empire is pursuing a prediction market entry via his Trump Media and Expertise Group. Final October, the mother or father entity of Fact Social introduced a partnership with CFTC-regulated Crypto.com to launch Fact Predict.

Fact Predict plans to supply buying and selling on varied contracts, together with sports activities and politics.  

“Fact Social customers will be capable to commerce prediction contracts associated to main occasions and milestones, equivalent to political elections, curiosity and inflation fee adjustments, commodity costs on gold and crude oil, occasions throughout all main sports activities leagues, and extra, utilizing the brand new product expertise known as ‘Fact Predict.’ Costs will replace in real-time, permitting customers to react immediately to developments in main present occasions,” a launch from Trump Media learn.  

It’s unclear when Fact Predict may launch. Main sportsbooks, together with DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics, have already launched prediction markets.